This review examines the challenges associated with occupational disease surveillance in Korea, particularly emphasizing the limitations of current data sources such as the Industrial Accident Compensation Insurance (IACI) statistics and special health examinations. The IACI system undercounts cases due to its emphasis on severe diseases and restrictions on approvals. Special health examinations, although they cover a broad workforce, are constrained by their annual scheduling, which leads to missed acute illnesses and subclinical conditions. The paper also explores the history of occupational disease surveillance in Korea, highlighting the fragmented and disease-specific approach of earlier systems. The authors introduce the newly established Korea Occupational Disease Surveillance Center (KODSC), a comprehensive nationwide system designed to gather, analyze, and interpret data on occupational diseases through a network of regional centers. By incorporating hospital-based surveillance and focusing on acute poisonings and other sentinel events, the KODSC aims to overcome the limitations of previous systems and promote collaboration with various agencies. Although it is still in the early stages of implementation, the KODSC demonstrates potential for improving data accuracy and contributing valuable insights for public health policy.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess whether the current physician workforce in Korea is sufficient to meet future healthcare demands, considering demographic changes and increasing medical needs. The objective was to project the future supply and demand for physicians and identify potential regional disparities.

Methods: Data on outpatient and inpatient utilization rates were obtained from the 2018 Health Insurance Statistical Yearbook, and population projections were sourced from Statistics Korea (2017–2067). Medical demand was estimated by multiplying these utilization rates by the population projections. The supply of physicians was projected using a cohort-component model that incorporated medical school quotas and age-specific attrition rates. Two scenarios were developed to account for changes in productivity: Scenario 1 assumed a 50% decrease in productivity for physicians aged 65–75, and Scenario 2 assumed a 75% decrease. Additionally, regional projections were analyzed using data from provincial and secondary medical service areas.

Results: National-level projections suggest a looming shortage of physicians, despite an increase in medical school admissions. Both scenarios predict a physician shortage, particularly in regions such as North Gyeongsang, South Chungcheong, and Jeju Island, by 2047. In contrast, Seoul is likely to see a surplus of physicians. The regional analysis underscores substantial disparities in physician distribution, with underserved areas experiencing increasingly severe shortages.

Conclusion: The study concludes that without flexible adjustments to medical school admission quotas and healthcare delivery systems, Korea will face significant physician shortages in the coming decades. To address this, it is necessary to increase the number of physicians in underserved regions and improve the efficiency of healthcare utilization.

Citations

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  Journal of Korean Medical Science.2025;[Epub]     CrossRef